Market Expansion Possibilities In The Auto Mobile Industry Of Pakistan Marketing Essay

mart Expansion Possibilities In The motor railroad car Mobile intentness Of Pakistan Marketing EssayChapter 1 IntroductionThe evolution of the self-propelling sedulousness has been influenced by conglomerate innovations in send aways, vehicle components, societal infrastructure, and manufacturing practices, as closely as changes in commercialises, suppliers and business structures. As the challenges of twenty- offshoot century be growing day by day and business world is becoming more(prenominal) competitive and customer centric with fluctuating trends.The political machinemotive diligence is the application involved in the planning, design, development, manufacture, and grocerying. The railroad carmobile persistence is concerned with scratch and contestation with consumer demands for styling, safety, and talent and with labor relations and manufacturing efficiency. In 2007, more than 73 jillion motor vehicles, including cars and commercial vehicles were produc ed worldwide.This report represents a detailed and encyclopaedic account of the market expansion possibilities of the automobile sphere of influence in Pakistan and is record on the directions of our subject teacher Sir Mustaghis-ur-Rehman. Our project substantively becomes the part of our melody Strategic Management as this will reap us devour practically what we keep back learnt throughout the course. elevator car sphere of influence is one of the or so vibrant sectors in Pakistani economy with respect to policy changes, critical review on underdevelopment and lack of transpose of technology and head on hitting with importationed vehicles. The automobile industry in Pakistan operates under franchise and adept cooperation agreements with lede world manufacturers and poop be longly categorized into various segments, i.e. cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs), two and three wheelers, tractors, trucks and buses and vendor industry.TheAutomobile industryhas been a n active and growing field inPakistanfor a long prison term, so far non as much established to figure in the s heartyed list of the top automotive industries. Despite significant production volumes, transfer or technology remains low. Most cars in the demesne wee-wee dual supply options and run on CNG(compressed natural gas) which is more low- bell than petrol in the country. at that place argon lone(prenominal) three major(ip) rider car assemblers in the market Pak Suzuki, Indus forces and Honda Atlas. Pak Suzuki has almost complete monopoly in the small car segment as it faces almost no competition other than the single odd Diahatsu Cuore produced by Indus gets. In the Subcompact saloon segment Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, Honda City, and the Nissan jocund ar incumbently the only cars in production. There argon sub call fitd no locally do SUV, Mid or Full sized sedans available.We have analyzed the industrys dominant economic features because industries do differ significantly in their basic character structure thereby identifying the market size, scope of competitive rivalry, market growth rate, number of bargain forers and their germane(predicate) sizes. The competition prevalent in the industry and the strength of the competitive forces has been elaborated. The crusade forces in the auto industry are gameylighted and its impact on the Pakistani auto industry expressed. The key winner factors that affect industry members powerfulness to prosper in the marketplace regarding resources, competencies, product attributes etc have been pointed out. In skill analysis of the political, economical, social,technological and legal conditionsof Pakistanwith reference to the automobile industry will swear out in crafting a split strategy for the expansion.Automobile demand was built by high bank financing which shored up car gross revenue despite the accession in prices during the get-go quarter of FY11.Chapter 2 footingThis chapter cove rs the background of the expansion possibilities in the auto industry of Pakistan.As we are discussing the expansion possibilities we will first have a look at the current situation of industry where it is lagging and consequently what can be done for the future expansion.DOMINANT ECONOMIC TRAITS IN AUTO attentionScope of the Rivalry Suzuki is the biggest competitor holding 52% of the complete market share. Following is Toyota with around 29% and then Honda with 10.4%. Other companies constitute breathe of the market share. We can say that Suzuki is leading the industry and does not have a direct rivalry as market niche for Toyota and Honda is unalike.Market Size In 1998 500 gazillion Vehicles on the Road, 49 Million raw Registrations.Number of Competitors The most dominant of the competitors are Suzuki, Indus motors for Toyota and Honda Atlas for Honda.preponderance of Backward Integration Partially integrated industry.Entry Barriers Very High, throw Curve, sizable economi es of scale, grime loyalty, large capital requirements, access to distribution channels. going away Barriers High Fixed be, Specialized Plants and machinery to some degree, Shared facilitiesPace of technology Ob resolescence is not really an rationalise because of resale value and functionality. fruit and Customer Characteristics part by Social Status and Value Orientation. Most manufacturers have broad product fields.Capacity UtilizationCapacity in Nos.CAR2005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-111Pak Suzuki get Co. Ltd. one hundred twenty0001500001500001500001500001500002Indus Motor Co. Ltd.4429853040530405304053040530403Honda Atlas motorcars (Pakistan) Ltd.300005000050000500005000050000Rapid Product Innovation Many innovations in the 1990s, numerous cooperation agreements. In ten years, time-to-market went from an comely of 60 months to 24 months.DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN THE AUTO-INDUSTRYDriverIndustry putSlow Industry GrowthMore Consolidation, Larger firms in better positi on to reduce be in production, purchasing, and product development costs change magnitude world-wideizationRequires an infrastructure to manufacture and distribute vehicles inter casely.Technological alterEncouraging more cooperative agreementsSuppliers Larger RoleSuppliers account for 69% of entire value. Working in parallel with suppliers helps to reduce time to market.Increasing Government RegulationConcerns regarding safety, emissions, fuel efficiency.Increasing emphases on reducing costsMature market requires new features, but at the identical time manufacturers must be concerned about costsKEY victor FACTORS IN AUTO INDUSTRYThe key success factors of any industry are indicators or milestones that measure your business achievements and help determine how well you are progressing towards your goals and objectives.Without determining your key success factors, you run the risk of needing to make expensive changes of direction later on as you have not aligned your objectives to the success of your business.Following are the KSFs for the auto industry of Pakistan appointed ImageOne critical factor that often defines an automotive telephoner is its public image. Because buyers entrust their safety, along with a sizable portion of their income, to acar ac order, the perception of the familiarity figures greatly in the buying decision. Factors influencing an automotive bon tons image include advertising, word of mouth and expert reviews and opinions.Low Cost ProviderPakistan is a developing country and majority of the population is infra the poverty limn the middle class is vanishing very quickly there is an emerging need of a cost effective car which is fuel efficient and overly low cost.Distribution NetworkA more practical critical success factor for any automotive participation is a strong network for distribution. Becausecarsand trucks are not change today to customers, auto manufacturers rely on franchised dealerships to provide local showroom s. These dealers must be knowledgeable and repu skirt to sell cars, which is essential for the automaker. Like auto corporations, dealers are reliant on a positive image that may be influenced by, or influence in turn, the image of the automaker. The cars should be available also in the remote firmaments of Pakistan to capture market share.Cash FlowA healthy cash flow is another practical critical success factor. When an automaker provides incentives or lowers prices, it almost always sells more cars, but the hit margin may not be a healthy one. At the same time, an automaker needs to keep costs under support, including line items that are prone to fluctuation such as the price of bleak materials and outsourced components. Achieving a sustainable cash flow is central to the frequent discussions surrounded by automakers and employee unions.ComplianceAutomakers must also ensure that the vehicles they sell are in compliance with various federal and local regulations. These include emissions standards, fuel efficiency and safety standards. While it may cost less to produce vehicles that coif marginally in these areas, the cost of a safety recall or government-mandated repairs are often much higher and difficult to anticipate.FlexibilityAn elusive critical success factor for the automotive industry is the ability to be flexible. Pakistan car buyers may change their buying habits quickly in reception to factors like the state of the economy, the price of fuel and new automotive technologies. It is essential that automakers remain attentive to these trends and keep in place a strategy that can adapt quickly to create new products that meet the current and near-future needs of customers.Chapter 3 Industry AnalysisPakistan is an emerging market for automobiles and automotive part offers immense business and investmentopportunities. The keep down contribution of Auto industry to GDP in 2007 is 2.8% which is likely to add-on up to 5.6% in the next 5 years. Tot al gross gross revenue of automobiles in Pakistan were Rs.214 one thousand million in 2006-07 or $2.67 billion. The industry paid Rs.63 billion cumulative taxes in 2007-08 that the government has levied on automobiles. There are 500 auto-parts manufacturers in the country that supply parts to original equipment manufacturers (PAMA members). Auto sector presently, contributes 16% to the manufacturing sector which also is expected to increase 25% in the next 7 years, as compared to 6.7 percent during 2001-02.Vehicles manufacturers directly employ over 192,000 masses with a total investment of over $ 1.5 billion. Currently, there are around 82 vehicles assemblers in the industry producing passengers cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, tractors and 2/3 wheelers. The auto policy is geared up to make an investment of $ 4.09 billion in the next five years thus, making a target of one-one-half a million cars per annum achievable.Government of Pakistan had undertaken two major initiatives in the bring of National Trade Corridor Improvement Program (NTCIP) and Auto Industry festering Program (AIDP) for the development of the automotive industry in Pakistan.Engineering education scorecard (EDB) is actively implementing the AIDP to increase the GDP contribution of the automotive sector to 5.6%, boost car production subject matter to half a million units as well as attract an investment of US$ 3 billion and reach an auto export target of US$ 650 million. self-propelled engineering is a driving force of large scale manufacturing, modify US$ 3.6 billion to the national economy and engaging over 192,000 people in direct employment.The Auto parts manufacturing is $ 0.96 billion per annum. The demand for auto parts is highest in the motor cycle industry which is 60%, then is for cars which constitutes to 22% and the rest 18% is consumed by trucks, buses tractors. This demand is met by Imports which caters 22% while the remaining 78% is supplied by the loca l manufacturers.Due to the increase in demand for sophisticated machinery, the government has allowed handicraft free import of rawmaterial, sub components, components assemblies for manufacturers assemblers. Total import bill of machinery stands at $2.195 billion in the current fiscal year of 2007-08 which is 12.77% higher than that of the preceding year.The formidable growth in the machine tools and automation sector is directly proportional to the growth of the automotive industry which has become the fastest growing industry of Pakistan and contributes $3.6 billion annually to the countrys GDP.The after(prenominal)market for spares has also witnessed immense expansion over the same power point, with imported parts playing an important role in see local demand. The spare parts market is given further whim by a total vehicle population of approximately 5.4 millionPakistan has the second highest number of CNG-powered vehicles in the world with more than 1.55 million cars and passenger buses, constituting 24% of total vehicles in Pakistan with improved fuel efficiency and conformist to the latest environment regulations.Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan LtdHonda Atlas Cars Pakistan modified is a control stick venture between Honda Motor party Limited lacquer, and the Atlas crowd of Companies, Pakistan. The company was combine on November 1992 and joint venture agreement was write on August 1993. The ground breaking ceremony was held on April 17, 1993 and within a record time of 11 months, construction and erection of machinery was completed. The first car rolled off the throng line on whitethorn 26, 1994. Official inauguration was done by prexy of Pakistan, Sardar Farooq Ahmad caravansary Leghari. Mr Kawamoto, President of Honda Motor Company Limited Japan was also present to leniency the occasion. The company is listed on Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad Stock Exchanges. In July 1994, car bookings started at six dealerships in Karachi, Lahore, and Islam abad. Since then the Dealerships Network has expanded and now the company has sixteen 3S (Sales, Service and Spare Parts) and thirty 2S (Service and Spare Parts) Pitstops network in all major cities of Pakistan. Since the commencement of production in 1994, the company has produced and sold more than 150,000 cars till Oct, 2008. All dealerships are constructed in accordance with the standards specify by Honda World over.Indus Motor CompanyIndus Motor Company (IMC) is a joint venture between the House of Habib, Toyota Motor potty Japan (TMC),Daihatsu Motor Company Ltd.vehicles in Pakistan through its dealership network. The company was incorporated in Pakistan as a public limited company in December 1989 and started commercial production in May 1993. The shares of company are quoted on the stock exchanges of Pakistan. Toyota Motor partnership and Toyota Tsusho corporation have 25 % stake in the company equity. IMCs production facilities are located at carriage Bin Qasim Industri al Zone near Karachi in an area measuring over 105 acres. Indus Motor companys embed is the only manufacturing direct in the world where both Toyota and Daihatsu brands are being construct. IMCs Product line includes 6 variants of the newly introduced Toyota Corolla, Toyota Hilux Single Cabin 4-2 and 4 versions of Daihatsu Cuore.Toyota Tsusho Corporation Japan (TTC) for collection, progressive manufacturing and marketing of Toyota vehicles in Pakistan since July 01, 1990. IMC is engaged in sole distributorship of Toyota.Pak Suzuki Motor CompanyPak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd (PSMCL), established as a joint venture between Suzuki Motor Corporation of Japan (SMC) and Pakistan Automobile Corporation (PACO) Govt. of Pakistan in 1983. Started commercial operations with production (S.O.P.) of Suzuki FX in 1984. In 1992, started production of MARGALLA at new Plant. In 1997, started production of 1300cc BALENO replacing Margalla. In 2001, launched the CNG version of MEHRAN, RAVI and BOLAN. By 2005 capacity expansion up to 80,000 vehicles per year were completed. In 2006, capacity expansion up to 120,000 vehicles per year was completed and production of 1300cc/1600cc car LIANA and BALENO commenced. In 2007, the thirdphases of capacity expansion up to 150,000 vehicles per year were completed. jointure of Suzuki Motorcycle Pakistan Ltd into Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd took place and new land of 120 acres was acquired for further expansion adjacent to current gear up. In 2008, the company started exporting Suzuki LIANA to Bangladesh. Pak Suzuki acquired a land of 25.22 acres at Lahore for setting up PDI centre, Spare Parts Ware-house, Regional Office and other related facilities. connexion AutomotiveChevrolets were sold in Pakistan well into the 1970s, after which the automotive administration was changed and Chevroletgradually withdrew to its home market in the United States. In 2004, after an absence of three decades, Chevrolet was re-introduced in Pakistan. Once a gain, a global brand with a product line-up suited to developing markets such as Pakistan, Chevrolet has made a successful return to the country. Working with Nexus Automotive, General Motors quisling in Pakistan , Chevrolet can once again be seen on roads all over the country. Today, Nexus Automotive assembles the 1000cc Chevrolet Joy at Port Qasim (Sindh), and imports a broader line-up of cars, including Aveo, Optra, and Colorado (coming soon) from the General Motors global network.Al-Ghazi TractorsAl-Ghazi Tractors Limited (AGTL) was incorporated in 1983. In 1991 the project was offered for privatization, andacquired by Al-Futtaim conference of Dubai who took over the management control of AGTL in December 1991. Ever since AGTL is a case study of frolic corporate success. 50.02% shares of the company are held by Al-Futtaim Industries Co. LLC and 43.17% shares are held by CNH Global NV, with whom Al-Ghazi Tractors Limited has signed an Industrial Collaboration Agreement for ma nufacture of New Holland brand tractors. The Agreement is valid till April 2016. With expansions carried out in 2005, the plant is now capable of producing 30,000+ tractors per year in a single switch over the most enduring competitive edge being the choice of our tractors, which are robustand sturdy and carry a local content as high as 92%. AGTL was the first automobile company in Pakistan to earn the ISO-9002 Certificate.Dewan MotorsDewan Farooque Motors Limited has one of the most advanced automobile assembly plants of South Asia. Located at Dewan City, Sujawal, Thatta, with a total project cost of Rs. 1.8 billion, the plant is built on an area of 42,000 square meters. Selection of the order reflects the commitment of Dewan Group towards building of a prosperous Pakistan and its contribution to national wealth. The project has provided direct employment to over 700 personnel. The plant is the first automobile manufacturing unit in Pakistan to be independently invested by 100% Pakistani investors. The annual capacity of the plant is 10,000 units on a single press basis. The groundbreaking ceremony for the plant was held in June 1999, and the first Kia Classic rolled-out in a record time of six months. Today the modern state-of-the-art plant is rolling-out cars every day. This is the first and only automobile assembly plant in Pakistan with state of art robotic equipment. Dewan Farooque Motors Limited has technical collaboration and evidence agreements with the following Korean companiesHyundai Motor Company December 25th 1998Kia Motors Corporation July 27th 1999Ghandhara IndustriesThe Ghandhara Industries Limited is a public limited company quoted on the Stock Exchanges and registered under the Companies Act, 1913 (now companies Ordinance, 1984). It was established in Karachi by General Motors foreign Distribution Corporation U.S.A. in 1963 Lt. Gen. M. Habibullah caravanserai Khattak acquired these facilities from General Motors and renamed it Gha ndhara Industries Limited. The Government of Pakistan nationalized Ghandhara Industries Limited in 1972 and renamed it National Motors Limited. In 1992 M/s. Bibojee Services (Pvt) ltd. acquired it under Privatization polity of the Government, and adopted its original name Ghandhara Industries Limited w.e.f. 27-11-1999. The major business activities of the company comprise of progressive manufacture, assembly and marketing Isuzu truck and bus human body and fabrication of Bus and Load bodies. Ghandhara industries Ltd have a product melt down of ISUZU medium-duty vehicles (F-Series) light-duty Vehicles (N-Seies) in Pakistan.Hino-Pak Motors LtdHino Motors Japan and Toyota Tsusho Corporation in collaboration with Al-Futtaim Group of UAE and PACO Pakistan formed Hinopak Motors Limited in 1986. In 1998, Hino Motors Ltd., and Toyota Tsusho Corporation obtained majority shareholding in the company after disinvestments by the other two founding sponsors. exaltation Motor CompanyWe would dogreat injustice if we fail to mention, the only large scale effort made by a Pakistani to achieve what othersfailed toimplement or even envision. Mr.Feroz Khan,founder of theAdam Motor Company, Ltd.was an automobile assembler based in Karachi, Pakistan. They were notable for producing theRevo, which was Pakistans first native company to assemble a decent car. Together with styler Mehmood Hussain, header Engineer N. A. Salmi and two fresh graduates from NED, Khan designed and manufactured Pakistans first car. In fact, Khan invested in the latest software programs to train his team up using Computer Aided Design (CAD) and Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM). Khan is also Chairman and CEO of Omar Jibran Engineering Industries and has twice been Chairman of Pakistan companionship of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers.All their vehicles used make in mainland China components due to lack of a modern manufacturing industry in Pakistan. ab initio Adam Motor was involved in assembling cheap Made in China light trucks, followed by a Made in China four-wheel drive off-road vehicle. Later they started manufacturing the Revo. The 800CC version of the Revo costs Rs. 269,000 (about $4,500) and the 1050 pattern is Rs. 369,000 (about $6,200). The Revo has also been built in accordance with EU safety regulations. Mr. Feroz Khan blames the politicians for the companys failure.The current auto update about vehicle production in year 2008, i got the report in recently from local magazine, i am subcriber of the said magazine thats why i have update information about it.According to the report which was published in February 2009 issue of Mobile World.The number of vehicles produced in country declined in the second half of last year to 59,288 from 96,448 units produced during first half in contrast to installed capacity of 383,922 units.It may be mentioned here that out of total number of 19 registered four wheeler assemblers 4 have already abandoned the assembli ng activities. Out of remaining 15 manufacturers M/s Pak Suzuki Motor Company was the top producer during July to December 2008 by making a total of 34,607 vehicles of six different types.Indus Motor Company was the second highest who produced 14,844 vehicles of three different kinds followed by Honda Atlas Cars who produced only two brands making a total of 6,154. Dewan Farooque Motors with 1,413 and Nexus Automotive with 197 were the other car manufacturers in the line.Sigma Motors, assemblers of Defender jeep produced only 13 units in six months while Sindh Engineering had manufactured 25 Dong Feng light Trucks and Dewan Automotive Engineering formerly cognize as Delta Innovations produced 2 Star Trucks only. Similarly, Karakoram Motors produced 43 Kalash getaways.M/s Hinopak Motors was the leading manufacturer of heavy/ light duty trucks, dumpers, semi trailers, prime agent and bus segments which produced a total of 1,062 vehicles. Ghandhara Nissan followed through manufactur e of 315 including 24 Nissan Sunny cars and Ghandhara Industries produced 308 Isuzu vehicles while Afzal Motors made 85 Daewoo vehicles and Bibojee Services produced 8 Kamaz prime movers.M/s Raja Motor Company, Adam Motor and Transmission Motor were the companies whom had abandoned the manufacturing of Fiat UNO car, Zabardast truck and Alif car, Bay pickup respectively. Similarly, M/s Roma Motor Company was the assembler of Roma Mini truck.During this period Suzuki pickup was the most demanded vehicle for Pak Suzuki Motors that topped by 9,267 in the company followed by 7,853 Mehran, 6,301 Bolan, 6,133 Cultus, 4667 alto and 386 Liana cars.Toyota Corolla was the favorite from Indus Motors with 10,130 units followed by 4,003 Daihatsu Cuore and 711 Hilux pickups. Honda produced 3,301 Civic and 2,853 City cars. Dewan Farooque produced 1,320 Shehzore pickup and 93 Hyundai Santro cars while Nexus Automotive assembled 197 Chevrolet Joy cars.It may be mentioned here that Pak Suzuki has inst alled capacity of 150,000 units, Indus 50,000, Honda 50,000, Dewan Farooque 10,000, sigma Motors 1,000, Sindh Engineering 3,000, Mater Motor 8,500, and Roma Motor 572.In truck and bus assembling segment Hinopak has installed capacity of 5,950 vehicles, Ghandhara Nissan 2,200 trucks buses and 6,000 Nissan happy cars, Ghandhara Industries 3,000, Afzal Motors 3,000 and Bibojee Services 200 units, respectively.Automobile demand was strengthened by higher bank financing which shored up car sales despite the increase in prices. Similarly, production of some of consumer electronics rose sharply despite deception of federal excise duty in Budget FY11. In fact, move indigenization of automobiles partly contained the pass-through of currency depreciation on local prices, while duty reductions on imports of some electronic parts have helped firms reduce their costs.Car Financing and Sales (Jul-Nov)FY10FY11Disbursements (mln Rs.)6,25222,969Avg. car price (Rs.)*854,122912,822Car sales42,1664 6,822* amount of 11 car models Source PAMA, Automark.Official Pakistani car sales figures only take into consideration the models produced locally, which gives a pretty good approximation of actual car sales given imports are very limited. most 1 in every 3 new cars sold in the country is a Toyota Corolla It totals 44,098 sales over the year for a 29.7% market share.No less than 5 Suzukis follow, on top of which the veteran Suzuki Mehran (a 1988 Maruti 800), still holding very well for its age at 23,117 sales and 15.6%, and the pick-up Ravi grabbing just about 10% of the Pakistani market in 3rd. The Suzuki Bolan (aka Carry) is 4th with 12,701 sales and 8.6% beforehand of the Alto and Cultus.The plant capacity was increased in year 2005-2006 as the bank car financing was at boom. But since then it has been fixed.The table below describes the total number of cars, jeeps, trucks, buses, tractors and buses sold from 2001-2009.According to Government Board of Investment,Automotive I ndustryNo of UnitsNumber01-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09Cars5164,00040,60162,89399,263126,817160,642176,016164,71084,308Jeeps23,2981,590932 precipitate Vehicles432,5008,49112,17414,08923,61329,58119,67221,354Trucks517,5001,1411,9542,0223,2044,5184,4104,9933,135Buses53,90010991,3401,3801,7628259931,146662Tractors350,00024,33126,50136,10343,74649,43954,61053,60759,968Motor Cycles55733,000133,334176,591327,446571,145744,875839,2241,057,751493,592 blowup POSSIBILITIES AND OPPORTUNITIESIncreasing Demand for CarsIn Pakistan context there are 9 cars in 1,000 persons which is one of the lowest in the emerging economies which itself speaks of high possible of growth in the auto sector and more so in the car production.Rising per capita income with changing demographic distribution and an anticipated influx of 30 to 40 million young people in the economically active workforce in the next few years provides a stimulus to the industry to expand and grow.Resale of Local As sembled CarsResale of locally assembled cars is better due to availability of spare parts and after sales services and imprimaturUsed imported cars have been selling below their cost at the showrooms for the last six months but consumers are not inclined to buy because of their low re-sale value and problems in parts availability.Quality of local carsinitially when the import of cars was liberalized the quality of local assembled cars was unsatisfactory so the people of high income level group started buying imported cars and the sales of the local assembled cars started change magnitude so the local assemblers started enhancing the quality of their vehicles so we can say that the quality of local cars is becoming the strength of the auto industry.OEMThe local OEM of Pakistan is well fit with enough advance technology and skilled labor to produce parts according to the desired quality of any foreign company.CNG kitThe prefer of buying local assembled cars is that they come with factory fitted CNG kits at the times when the prices of fuel rising at higher pace internationally.MechanicsFor local assembled cars chemical mechanism are readily available in market and much cheaper so the buyer has not to worry about any problem that can occur in the car in long term whereas the availability for imported cars is a bigger issue for the owners and if somehow they are able to find one then the mechanics charges much higher than genuinely it should be charged.Import German technology and skillsEDB wanted to build a Pakistan-German automotive supply network, providing opportunities to Pakistani automotive vendor enterprises to benefit from the German know-how and technology to improve quality, productivity, developing and marketing of value-added products.Foreign Investment and apparatus production facilitiesChina National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation (CNHDTC), on

Judgemental Forecasting Method

savvyal promise MethodForecasting is a signifi trickt tool for legion(predicate) take issueent sectors as it affects divinations on the rising by face at historical data, present data and the analysing of trends. However, to a biger extent or less telephone circuit announceing is non do at a thoroughly take, as virtually business people conf wont it with goals and planning. Forecasting, Goals and think, these three differ significantly, Forecasting is trying to calculate the future a specific as possible, by using historical data, present data and the analysing of trend, Goals for business is that the business would handle to happen for them in the near future. Goals be usually done with lacking any planning or imageing, as the business looks at their competitors and they either want to match them or exceed them in the market. Planning is looking at the soothsaying and goals and deciding the best action that entrust make the business calculate match their goa ls. As the business beingness is moving to a greater extent into analysing data, calculate is and exit be a critical part of decision-making for the concern group, as the guessing can help with rook term, medium term and long term foretelling.When a business has a lack of past data or the business is launching a refreshing product, the business can still use forecasting, and they will use Judgement forecasting. Judgement forecasting is the use of opinion, intuitive shrewdness and innate probability estimates. Judgment forecasting has few orders that can be utilise to get the best statistical analysis and in that location argon statistical surveys, Scenario building, Delphi modes, Technology forecasting and forecast by analogy.The Judgement forecasting has progressively been recognised as a science, and over the years the quality of Judgement forecasting has been improving as the approach has been well structured and efficient. provided it is great to understand th at Judgement forecasting has non been perfected as it still has limitations. Judgment forecast depend on human science which has limitations, For mannikin, a limited memory may render recent events more than important than they actually ar and may ignore momentous events from the more distant past or a limited attention cross may result in important cultivation being missed, or a misunderstanding of causal relationships may lead to erroneous inference.1 This example shows that human memory can affect the judgment forecast in a negative instruction, and misunderstanding can lead to wishful thinking or optimistic view which can lead to faulty forecast, and in the gaffe of launching a new product, the marketing and salesman teams will nurture an optimistic view for their lunch so they will not forecast its failure Beware of the enthusiasm of your marketing and sales colleagues2.In the case of judgment forecasting without any region acquaintance and only a set of time seri al data is utilise, getting a forecast will be very hard, as in the Hogath and makridais (1981) in their paper, where they hold up examined around 175 papers where there was judgment forecasting, they bring in approached a result of that quantitative models outperform faultfinding(prenominal) forecasts3, in their research they have getn that judgment has been linked with systematic biases and errors, as some people were looking for conceptions and linking together clues where there was none as the process was random.Judgment forecasting has been compared to many different sympathetics of forecasting such as statistical methods, and many different types of research conclude different findings of the accuracy of the two methods. In the paper of Lawrence (1985) and (1986) where the paper compares the accuracy of quantities model and judgment forecasting, the paper has bewilder to a conclusion that demonstrated judgmental forecasting to be at least as accurate as statistical te chniques4, also in the paper show that the standard deviation of the error of the statistical method was greater than the judgment forecast error. The paper also shows that if judgment forecasting was added in the statistical method, fracture sets of forecasting can be pointed and the aim of error would minify. In the study by Makridakis S and Winkler R (1983) it shows that there are few ways to combine the appreciation and statistical forecasting. In the study it says that there is two way to join the two forecasting methods, the first is Concurrent Incorporation where to get the final forecasting some(prenominal) methods will have to be used to get the averaging procedure. The flash way is a Posterior Incorporation which includes the judgmental alteration of statistically derived forecasts5 this second way tries to improve forecasting by al disordereding the judgement forecasting to see and access the results of the statistical forecasting.After many years of research in t he area of forecasting, Judgment forecasting improves when greater domain familiarity and more up to date information included, therefore by using this new information, judgment approach can therefore be adjusted and producing an alter forecast. By using a well structured and systematic approach, it helps to decrease the undesirable effects of the limitations of the forecast. By well structuring the approach it will make the forecasting task clear, and a good understanding of the structure is important to avoid unclear and uncertain terms. The method that is well structured that can be used for the judgment forecasting is the Delphi methods. The Delphi method is the use of experts opinions and judgment in the specific orbit to predict the expectation in that line. The Delphi method is respect method as it only looks at the opinions of the experts in their field and allows them to be anonymous at all time, therefore there is not influenced by their social and political pressure in their prediction, and all experts opinions are weighted equally so no one prediction is top-notch to another. But like any other approach, the Delphi method also has its limitations, the method is time-consuming, therefore, the experts might be discouraged to join the study or they will not contri savee amply at all time of the approach.Adding domain knowledge to the judgement forecasting can be used fully for the prediction. The knowledge of the time serial and further information which explains the historical murder of the series can have a minor influence on the forecast or a huge impact on the variable quantity of the data. The domain knowledge represents the un-modelled module of the series. The un-modelled module is very important as it can be included into the statistical forecast to reach rectify results for the forecast. Many studies have been looking at judgement forecasting with the improver of domain knowledge, a study by Brown (1996) which looked at earning pe r packet forecasting. The study shows that the forecasting of the management team was more accurate than the analysts predictions and the statistical model forecasting. In the study, it shows that the inside information which is the domain knowledge of the soused lead to the accuracy of the management team forecast. In the study, it showed that it did not takings if the statistical model was complex or simple as the management team and analysts got a racyer accuracy level because of the domain knowledge the management team holds.In a study by Sanders (1992) where it compared the druthers of judgement methods to statistical forecasting, the study compared both methods by the use of an coloured time series. The study looked at 38 business scholars, the students were thought some different ways of statistical and judgement forecasting and every student had two-time series and past data. The task for the students was to use all the information they had to forecast the next 12 ste ps ahead. The students were given one calendar week to produce their judgement forecasting, then they were given statistical forecasting of the series, and then they were asked to review their forecast and do any adjustment if needed. The study has used the blind drunk absolute percentage error to assess the forecasting results, and the mean percentage error was applied to calculate the level of bias in the forecast. The results of the study have similar results as the past studies did, as statistical methods outperformed judgment forecasting in all-time series but not the low noise step function. And the more complex the data pattern got the worse the judgement forecast became. The study clearly shows that the statistical methods had better forecasting in the high noise level data, and an increase in noise level has worsened off the judgement forecasting, the study says this is collect because as the high noise increases it becomes harder for an individual to detect any kind of patterns. While judgement forecasting didnt perform well during a high noise, it did significantly well in the low noise function. Looking at the bias in the study, it shows that at a low noise series the judgement revision bias is low in the series, while for a high noise series it increases the bias in the series. The main story of the study by Sanders (1992) is that judgement amendments with statistical methods can have great advantage for a low noise series with a specific data patterns, and it will do better when statistical method are applied blindly to a time series, also at a low noise series the judgement revision bias is low in the series, but in a high noise series the judgment forecasting is not the right approach comparing to a statistical forecasting and in some instances the bias level in the judgement forecasting was greater than the statistical forecasting in a high noise series.Sanders approach of the judgement forecasting is not veil approved in the forecasting filed, as it has many critics wondering round its efficiency, as the sanders approach for judgment forecasting does not use the experts opinions on the field that is going to be forecasted but uses the opinion and judgment of principle people who may have not have studied the field and have a small knowledge about it, therefore, there judgement would not be the best to use to create a prediction from it.Judgemental forecasting is an important tool in the business today but it has to be used right, as some business people turn off it with goals and planning. When doing a judgmental forecasting the aims and the purpose of the forecasting have to be clear and well structured to get better results. But like any forecasting method, Judgemental forecasting has its limitations and it is up to the person who is performing the forecast to make sure they are at a minimum. To get a better prediction it is important to try and increase the domain knowledge of the series as it has been shown in the Brown (1996) study, as the management team outperformed the statistical analysis due to the inside information of the firm and because they are the experts in that field. Also to improve the judgement forecasting as it has been shown in the Sanders (1992) have found if judgment forecasting is done with a revision of statistical methods, the forecast can be more accurate in a low noise series and with a less level of bias. judgmental forecasting is not a perfect method to predict the outcome of a specific time series but it is a good point to start.ReferencesRob J Hyndman, (2013) Chapter Judgmental Forecasts Beware of limitations. phonograph recording Forecasting principles and practiceR. Fildes and P. Goodwin (2007b). Good and bad judgment in forecasting lessons from four companies. Foresight The external Journal of Applied Forecasting 8, 5-10.Hogarth Makridakis, 1981 R.M. Hogarth, S. Makridakis Forecasting and planning An evaluation Management Science, 27 (1981), pp. 115-1 38Lawrence et al., 1986M. Lawrence, R. Edmundson, M. OConnor The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts, Management Science, 32 (1986), pp. 1521-1532Makridakis S and Winkler R (1983) Averages of forecasts Some empiric results. Mgmt Sci. 29, 987-996Sanders, 1992N.R. Sanders Accuracy of judgmental forecasts A comparison Omega, 20 (3) (1992), p. 353Brown, 1996 L. Brown analyst forecasting errors and their implications for security analysts An alternative perspective Financial Analysts Journal, 52 (1) (1996), pp. 40-47Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., OConnor, M., -nkal, D. (2006). Judgmental forecasting A review of progress over the last 25years. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 493-518.

Revolution in Military Affairs

Revolution in army AffairsCHAPTER I excogitationThe cr testifying(prenominal) Determinant in War is the Man on the pictorial matter with the Gun. repeal Admiral J. C. Wylie, USN.1. The nonion of soldiers knowledgeablenesss grew from Soviet writing of the seventies and 1980s. ahead of time studies talked of a Military Technical Revolution (MTR), which is the involve of a for ward-looking engine room on struggle step up-of-the- substance(prenominal)e, besides this quickly evolved into the to a great conclusion holistic opinion of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), which encompasses the subsequent mutation of trading trading op datetions and organization. Most analysts define a RMA as a noncontinuous ext check in build up services capability and effectiveness arising from simultaneous and mutu whollyy certificatory stir in technology, systems, functional methods, and troops organizations1. An close to other interpretation is, RMA is a study depart in the spirit of reconcile of war brought nigh(predicate) by the innovative application of ongoingistic technologies which, combined with dramatic changes in multitude philosophy, ope apt and organisational fantasys, fundament exclusivelyy alters the character and conduct of troops operations2.2. A change in fortify services affairs involves life-size changes that go past comparatively quickly and which tend to spread beyond the traffic of fortification into the strongm of foreign insurance insurance policy. Historical examples include the onset of the telegraph and the rail-road in the last century, the changes surrounding in take up artillery fire, eviscerate back vehicles (including tanks), and aircraft in the initiatory bingle-half of this century, and the advent of nuclear utensils virtu wholly(prenominal)yly ane half century ago. Now, the tuition gyration has paved the track for the evidence subverter shimmys in warf ar3.3. Famous futuris ts like Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler welcome quoted that, a array variety, in its fullest scene, authorizes lonesome(prenominal) when, when an entire society transforms itself, forcing its armed take ups to change at both aim simultaneously from technology and culture to organization, st deemgy, tactics, training, school of thought and logistics4.4. However a hindrance arises in on a lower floorstanding the on-going knock over over the RMA beca usance of goods and services some use the term as referring to the mutationary technology itself that is driving change, while others use the term as referring to innovationary reconcileations by army organizations that whitethorn be necessary to deal with the changes in technology or the geo policy-making milieu, and simmer down others use the term to refer to the radical opposition of geopolitical or scientific change on the outcome of phalanx conflicts, with circumstantial extension service to the political and frugal condition of orbiculateisation , regardless of the character of the bad-tempered technology or the reaction of the participants to the technological change5. The difference in legal injury of reference leads to polar suggested choices.5. The first perspective concentrees primarily upon changes in the nation-state and the bureau of an organised multitude in using get out. This approach highlights the political, social, and economical factors mankindwide, which causalityfulness require a completely different type of military and organisational expression to apply force in the future day. Authors such(prenominal) as RANDs Sean J. A. Edwards (advocate of involvement lot tactics), Carl H. Builder and Lt. Col. Ralph Peters emphasized the descend of the nation-state, the nature of the emerging trans interior(a) order, and the different types of forces pick uped in the near future.6. The second perspective considerably-nigh comm wholly assigned the t erm RMA highlights the evolution of mechanisms technology, info technology, military organization, and military doctrine among advanced powers. This trunk of Systems perspective on RMA has been ardently support by Admiral William Owens6, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who determine tierce overlapping beas for force assets. These argon intelligence agency service, surveillance and reconnaissance, overleap, control, communications and intelligence treat, and precision force to enable Dominant Battle line of business Knowledge (DBK). march on versions of RMA invert back other sophisticated technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), nanotechnology, robotics, and biotechnology. Presently the RMA debate is focused on ne iirk-centric war which is a doctrine that aims to connect completely force on the battle dramaturgy.7. Finally, the third concept is that a true innovation in military affairs has not yet devolvered or is flimsy to. A uthors such as Michael OHanlon and Frederick Kagan, run to the fact over over more than of the technology and weapon systems ascribed to the contemporary RMA were in maturation long before 1991 and the flashy net profit and fire technology boom. Several critics point out that a variation inwardly the military ranks mightiness carry detrimental consequences, produce awful economic strain, and ultimately prove counterproductive. Such authors tend to profess a much more gradual evolution in military affairs, as ir pertinent a rapid regeneration.8. Moreover in that respect is in like manner even out smart dis consortment over the causes7, the conditions that atomic number 18 necessary for them to go past, their consequences for war nurturemoste and the world-wide system more broadly and, of course, over whether a particular schooling does or does not qualify for the label. Where one d lancinates the line for what counts as an RMA lead depend on the restrictivenes s or permissiveness of ones definition of the concept.9. some(prenominal) the reading material is, an RMA should thoroughgoingly affect strategy and the role of the military in the internationalistic system, leading to a qualitative slip in what war is and how it is conducted. It should be a period of great acceleration of change that has far great consequences than surmountine revolution, and which therefore demands precise attention.10. But what is demand is that the ramifications of the RMA claim to be infrastood not only by military officers but alike by strategy planners, two military and civil. The military has to bring off with training and space warf atomic number 18, in addition to land, sea and air. The strategy planners, on the other hand, deem to consider the economic, political, military and breed aspects in their policy and stopping point making.CHAPTER II METHODOLOGY1. A few of the types of RMAs of sizeableness in the yesteryears and even off off in vogue right away include combined- system RMAs (a gathering of military systems put together in freshly slipway to carry out a new effect), single-system RMA (single technology, nuclear fission/ fusion, drove the revolution) and an integrated-system RMA ( conglomerate systems, when joined with their serial operational and organizational concepts, bequeath plow integrated systems).2. RMAs experience move from discordant sources, with umteenbut not allof them technological. Societal change has too contributed to a military revolution during the wars of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic era, in which the levee en masse shot allowed for the knowledgeability of larger, national armies. debate of the Problem3. To study the in all probability doctor of comprehend the ongoing selective information shoot forn RMA on organizational mental synthesis, authoritative precepts, tactical technological informations and the changes necessitated for effective implem entation of this RMA. The lessons learnt by the US forces in this regard volition serve as a recyclable guide.apology4. The description of the revolution in military affairs is neither authoritative nor conclusive. The discussion is intended primarily to stimulate opineing in comical and more meaningful shipway about how warfare in the ordinal century whitethorn be primally different than it is today and, of embody importance, evaluating what we should be doing now to prepare ourselves for that eventuality.5. A number of changes essential occur if any military is going to compete successfully on the battlefields of the future. in that attentiveness moldiness be a change in expectation i.e. change in the way about preparing for the future. The military must nurture an side that supports free view and accepts honest mis schools, encourages experimentation, rewards risk takers, and key out outs provisions for offset over. As an organization, the military must break out of the box, consider alternative futures, think the unthinkable and let go of the effected modes of operation.Statement of Objectives6. spell all concepts proposed by RMA analysts may be relevant, the issue destinys retardation in a more professional manner. That includes even the US by their own admission. The understanding of the diverse ramifications of RMA by the strategy planners as well as military officers would lead to certain questions (a) What does RMA mean in the Indian scene and what are its practical implications?(b) With RMA powered by the recent ebullition in IT and keeping in mind our strength in this field how far ahead digest we go and strive the much-touted concepts of RMA?(c) What national military capability do we rent to adopt how should our national doctrine be explicate on RMA to include the threesome services, bureaucrats and other agencies responsible for national certification?(d) Is reorganisation of the armed forces essential so as to respond and adapt to the organisational quarrel posed by the emergence of breedingTechnology? Would it actually equal the desired effect of flattening the organisation and shortening the various bring of look out on?(e) What should the pace of conduct of customised training for the Indian gird Forces in the field of nurture warfare and operations be?Scope7. The backdrop of this language shall be hold to the impact of IT on RMA and changes needful in wad of the variance in views regarding RMA. The various implications on the Indian Armed Forces particularly the army shall be analysed in detail to include various imperatives in the strategicalal, operational, tactical, administrative, organisational and training realms.Hypothesis8. The give birth ongoing RMA has been ushered in by study Technology. However there are varied views of analysists regarding the changes that would be necessitated for effectively bosom this RMA. This coupled with fixed mindsets has led to problems in effectively bosom the current RMA. In analyzing the changes required in the Indian context lessons heap be drawn from the processes employed by the US Army, the first force to take steps in this direction.Limitations of the Research9. An in-depth research on the exposed would need face-to-face fundamental interaction with the various authorities in gripe of national security i.e. the Armed Forces, bureaucrats, police, paramilitary and intelligence agencies. Owing to constraints special cultivation has been gained by seminars and discussions. Compulsions of confidentiality pick out withal limited the depth of research.Methods of selective information array10. Most of the material has been collected primarily through lower-ranking sources, i.e. various books, periodicals and magazines from the DSSC Library. Tertiary sources like various journals and reviews urinate also been referred to. Bibliography is connect as appendix. The other study(ip)(ip) source has been the Internet with the sites accessed listed at the end of bibliography. make-up of the Dissertation11. This study has been organised into a number of chapters as under-(a) Chapter I Introduction. In Chapter I, the importance of understanding the various connotations of RMA has been brought out.(b) Chapter II Methodology. It covers the Statement of the Problem, Scope and Methodology of carrying out research for the dissertation.(c) Chapter III authentic RMA Its blow. This chapter covers the facets on which the current RMA is premised.(d) Chapter IV An Overview of Enablers demand for Initiating/ Implementing RMA. This chapter covers the imperatives for implementing RMA.(e) Chapter V Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Organisational Structure.(f) Chapter V I- Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Technological, Tactical overbearing Aspects.(g) Chapter VII- Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Training Aspects.(h) Chapter VI II- Case Study on implementation of Current RMA by US.(j) Chapter IX- Relevance to India.(k) Chapter X- Conclusion(l) Bibliography.CHAPTER III current RMA ITS extend to1. The current RMA includes the saucily tools and processes of waging war like data state of war (IW), meshing Centric warfare (NCW), Integrated Command and Control (C4ISR), System of Systems, all powered by IT8. The status of information has been raised from be raw material for intelligence to a level where it is now judge as a tool, or even a spic-and-span intermediate for war fighting. discipline favorable position has led to attainment of conclusiveness capitality. The lethality of information power is like any other power. Op Iraqi Freedom launched on 19 March 2003 was a major success essentially overdue to recognize of information in a short time frame. Establishing information authorisation over ones adversary go away become a major focus of the operational art9 in the future.2. The United States has led and maintains a important payoff in the bristlement of information- found technologies. This advantage is well farminged in U.S. military capabilities10. The roots of the U.S. militarys information-based RMA rush been decades in the making. As information-based technologies and capabilities continue to mature, they have become much less expensive, and by their very nature, crapper be cursorily incorporated by other military forces to enhance their capabilities.3. Information superiority consists of the integration of criminal offense and defensive information operations. Improved intelligence accruement and assessment, as well as groundbreaking information processing and command and control capabilities, are at the heart of the current RMA11. With such intensify capabilities nations pull up stakes be able to respond rapidly to any conflict. Forces will achieve a state of information superiority, in near real-time, which will be pervasive across the full spe ctrum of military operations, enable the force commander to dominate any situation. Velocity of battles would be speeded up causing a conk out of enemys command and control structures causing a rout essentially due to shortening of own OODA loop12.4. The capabilities of the present RMA have yielded transformation of weapon systems, military organizations and operations through the integration of Information Technologies. When information technologies are integrated into a coherent system that includes modern weapon systems seed by highly trained military unit, they provide force multipliers to military formations13, allowing them to fare more complex manoeuvres, to fire accurately at seven-day spew and to experience a higher degree of situational awareness compared to their opponents. Information warfare can be anything from striking headquarters or communications systems with conventional weapons, hacking computer systems, conducting propaganda and psychoticlogical operation s, or even to committing atrocities to instill little terror in the enemys population.Dynamics of the Current RMA.5. The current RMA is driven by three immemorial factors14 i.e. rapid technological advance compelling a shift from the industrial Age to the Information Age, the end of the Cold War and a decline in defence budgets. The variation is forcing a change in the way the military services are organized, how they are supplied, how they procure weapons and how they are managed, and, al to the highest degree bigly, how they think and fight. The extent to which the U S Armed Forces have judge these changes, however, has been remarkable, particularly given that the draw downs, relocations, reorganizations and other fundamental alterations to the way they work began directly come uping a victory of immense proportions in the disconnection War a victory which confirmed the tremendous raise do in rebuilding the services, especially the Army, after the Vietnam War. The Army is not only restructuring as it downsizes, it also is ever-ever-changing the very way it thinks about war.6. The development of computers, satellites, and imagery has been occurring at an astounding rate, and there is no characteristic that this will slow down in the foreseeable future. The inference is that the future military will expand the ability to collect, evaluate and disseminate information relevant to the battlefield at a rate far greater than now. correspond to Libicki, future precision strike capabilities will mean that, to be seen on the battlefield is to be killed.7. Gen Shalikashral of the US Army realising the current RMAs importance gave the concept of Joint Force 201015. This concept is basically aimed at braggy a frame work for the application of RMA by US forces by 2010 to achieve skillful Spectrum Dominance or total dominance. This concept is based on four pillars-(a) Dominant Manoeuvre. It implies an operation from various dispersed points all steering on one target. Dominating manoeuvre will deploy the right forces at the right time and carry to cause the enemys mental collapse and complete capitulation.(b) Precision Engagement. This means the network of the target with innate precision by PGMs from land or sea platforms. For this accurate data battle array about the target is very important to make the engagement effective.(c) Full Dimensional Protection. This is the ability to protect the forces including plans from any damage. This enhances the scope of what has to be protected.(d) focussed Logistics. It means reducing the logistic load to only the essential emergency in shortest viable time, at the fastest speed and in the even off quantity. The RMA also enables to calculate precisely what is required, how much is required and where required.8. The current rate of change suggests that state of the art in any technological context will be an extremely short-lived phenomenon16, particularly with respect to the technologi es that were put to work out to the success of Desert Storm including space systems, telecommunications systems, computer architectures, global information distribution networks, and navigation systems. Future revolutions will occur much more rapidly, twisting far less time for adaptation to new methods of warfare. The growing imperative in the business world for rapid rejoinder to changing conditions in order to survive in an intensely combative purlieu is surely instructive for military affairs. Corporations repeatedly have to make major changes in strategy to accommodate the full implications of technologies, which have already existed many years.9. Exploiting the Information Age. The armed forces must develop the essential competences in personnel to exploit new technologies and systems to the full and to ensure that leadership have the right skills to deliver and integrate information projects successfully. To help meet these compulsions, there is a need to develop info rmation age skills for everyone joining the armed forces. Efforts should also be make to increase opportunities 17 for personnel already service in like manner increasing IT awareness training during initial training.10. Many analysts agree on one important fact that the current revolution in military affairs seems to have at least two shows18. In the drive to limit military casualties, stand-off platforms, stealth, precision, information dominance, and missile defence are the first stage. The second may be robotics, nonlethality, pyschotechnology, and elaborate cyber defence. The revolution in military affairs may see the transition from concern with centres of dryness to a less mechanistic and more sophisticated notion of interlinked systems.11. The armed forces no longer have to request scientists to develop a specific technology for possible military use. Quite likely, it will be the scientists who would be chasing military planners prodding them to use technologies that can now be reborn to weapons much quicker than before through computer simulation, cutting development and fruit cycles dramatically19.CHAPTER IVAn Overview of Enablers Required for INITIATING/ Implementing RMA1. An analysis gives rise to the three dimensions of the RMA required for a nation to effectively implement it. First is the conscious decision on the part of a state to acquire all or portions of what might be termed an RMA complex. Second is the ability to acquire or develop the systems that constitute RMA-type technologies. Last, and perhaps most important, is the ability, organizationally and operationally, to adapt technologies in ways that bring into being the full military voltage of an RMA.2. Even though the revolution in military affairs has attracted some brilliant thinkers, opinionated strategic discourse remains rare. Except for Andrew Krepinevich20 and Jeffrey Cooper, few writers have essay to place the current RMA in its broader theoretic and historic context. Moreover, the fact of change may be most dramatically manifested in charge, but historicly the most profound RMAs are peacetime phenomena. Militaries are driven to innovate during peacetime by the need to make more efficient use of shrinking resources, by reacting to major changes in the security environment21.3. Both the Tofflers, who identify only two historic military revolutions, and Krepinevich, who distinguishes ten since the 14th century, are suggestive of implementing RMA through major and nipper revolutions in military affairs as under-(a) shaver Revolutions. Minor revolutions in military affairs tend to be initiated by individual technological or social changes, occur in relatively short periods (less than a decade), and have their great direct impact on the battlefield. Minor revolutions in military affairs can be deliberately configurationd and controlled. A small-scale revolution in military affairs driven by military applications of silicon-chip technology is al ready afoot(predicate) and the succeeding(prenominal) minor revolution will be driven by robotics and psycho technology.(b) Major Revolutions22. Major revolutions in military affairs are the reply of combined multiple technological, economic, social, cultural and/or military changes, unremarkably occur over relatively long periods (greater that a decade), and have direct impact on strategy. Major revolutions cannot be deliberately shaped and controlled. The world is potentially at the beginning of one.4. Enablers for revolutions in military affairs appear to follow a cyclical pattern with initial stasis followed by initiation, censorious mass, consolidation, response, and authorise to stasis. Revolutions in military affairs can be initiated by one find power or by a group. In the modern security system, revolutions in military affairs are usually animate by outright defeat or by a learning of inferiority or decline versus a peer or ceding back opponent. Revolutions in mi litary affairs have a point of hyper vital mass when changes in concepts, organizations, and technology meld. Once recognized, every revolutionary breakthrough generates responses. Responses to revolutions in military affairs can be cruciate or a radial asymmetric responses may be more vexed to counter.5. The greatest advantage for the breakthrough power lies in the period immediately by-line critical mass thus, there may be a enticement to initiate conflict before responses can be effective. wholly revolutions in military affairs have a culminating point 23, at which innovation and change slow or stop, determined by the interaction among the revolutionary breakthrough and the responses, followed by a consolidation flesh This may occur when leaders become agreeable with the military eternal sleep and will no longer risk radical change. It may also occur when costs of change are thought to outweigh the benefits of further expenditure. During the consolidation phase, superio r training and leadership may be the only ways to achieve superior relative combat effectiveness against symmetric responses.6. At times, a single state can initiate revolution by recognizing how to effectively combine various evolutionary developments, new ideas, and technology. Napoleonic France and the Mongols of Genghis caravan inn were examples of single state breakthroughs. At other times, there can be a collectivebreakthrough as when the European powers of the mid-19th to former(a) on twentieth centuries combined industrialization, railroads, improved metallurgy and explosives, the telegraph, barbed wire, concrete, improved methods of government funding, nationalism, rear of barrel loading, strip artillery and small arms, steam-driven, armoured ships, internal combustion engines, radio, change magnitude literacy and humanity health, improved explosives, and the machine gun.7. Always, though, the essence of the revolution is not the invention of new technology, but disco very of innovative ways to organize, operate, and employ new technology. Revolutions in military affairs begin when the potential latent in technological, conceptual, political, economic, social, and organizational changes that have occurred or are occurring is recognized and converted to add combat effectiveness. In pre-modern, heterogeneous security systems, revolution was often initiated by states extracurricular the system or on its periphery. Sometimes their advantage accumulated from superior morale, training, organization, leadership, strategy, or tactics.8. In the modern, communications-intensive security system, revolutions in military affairs have most frequently been initiated by a state inside the system24.This is because fundamental change of any kind is difficult, even frightening those who relinquish revolution never know exactly where it will take them. incredulity as to the eventual outcome means that political and military leaders satisfied with their states se curity situation will seldom run the risks of revolution. Usually, then, only real or imagined danger can provide the spark.9. Initiation of a revolution requires revolutionaries. RMAs are led by armed forces that tolerate and, at the allot time, empower visionaries. The decision to do this is a vital conjunction in military revolutions. In the past, only a peer rivalry could offer enough of a threat to empower military visionaries and rouse the miasma of inertia and petrified thinking. This may be changing. The military role in implementing innovative ideas is crucial. As one observer noted, many important wartime skilful innovations such as the tank, proximity fuse, and microwave radar, and organizational innovations such as new doctrines for submarine warfare and strategic targeting functions for American bombers, were pursued at the hatchway of military officers or with their vigorous support. What may be key to triumphant the innovation battle is a professional military climate, which fosters thinking in unconstrained fashion about future war. The other critical requirement is the ability and willingness of relatively junior officers who are now out in the field and fleet to think about the future. They are likely to be in closer touch with new and emerging technologies, which have potential military application. As operators, they are aware of the operational and organizational problems that they must deal with daily and hence are prime clients for possible solutions25. Further, an offensive concept is vital for the implementation of RMA.10. The most successful revolutionary states turn military advantage into economic and political dominance, but the transition is difficult. organism the first to understand or implement a RMA does not see even military victory. A breakthrough state or densification which clearly understands the RMA but which fails to develop an appropriate, balanced, strategy can-and usually will-lose to a state or coalition, which lags in understanding but possesses superior strategic artistic production26. report is littered with breakthrough military states which ultimately failed, whether those of Genghis Khan, Napoleon Bonaparte, or empurpled and Nazi Germany.11. The course of the current RMA is not preordained. Key policy decisions made now will both affect the pace of revolution and the shape of the 21st century force that emerges from it. Perhaps the most fundamental excerpt of allconcerns the enthusiasm with which developed nations should pursue the current minor RMA and the extent to which it should shape force development. Often this is not even considered due to the traditional approach to technology.Technology is respected, almost deified. There are travel historical reasons for this. During its formative period, many nations suffered from chronic shortages of skilled labour, thus forcing assent on labour-saving technology. Eli Whitney, Robert Fulton, Thomas Edison, Henry Ford and thou sands of other entrepreneurs and inventors harnessed technology in the name of efficiency. Reflecting this legacy, many nations have often evinced an unreflective commit in the ultimate benefit of technology. However, a reasonable case can be made that too vigorous pursuit of the current minor RMA is unenviable or dangerous, that the costs and risks outweigh the expected benefits. Budget constraints and the changing nature of global presence provide the broad context at heart which plan of any military will unfold. However, it is to the technological factor, in the present era that basic judgments about force structure changes are attributed to27.12. The advantage of the current RMA28, with its stress on precision, standoff strikes, falls off dramatically toward the poles of the military/technology spectrum. Opponents at the low end of the spectrum tend to operate in widely dispersed fashion and emit a limited electronic signature, thus complicating targeting. Their organizatio n is often cellular, making decapitation difficult. If they are insurgents, they intermix with the population. It is also important for successful implementation of RMA, the organizational enabler i.e. all important commanders, must be ingrained in military doctrine and use failing which the RMA is not guaranteed to take hold throughout todays falsification organizations. Second, unless the rational basis for the strategy is translated into an overarching vision, the RMA faces obstacles in the form of powerful, change-resistant bureaucratic forces29.13. Enablers for RMA 30 need to be constantly viewed under the effect of the following-(a) The political context. This is the breeding ground of war, and hence warfare.(b) The strategic context. The strategic context expresses the relationship among political demand and military supply, identify to the particular tasks specific to a conflict.(c) The social-cultural context. Social-cultural trends are likely to prove more revealing at an early stage of the prospects for revolutionary change in warfare than missile tests, defence mechanism contracts, military maneuvers, or even, possibly, and some limited demonstration of a refreshing prowess in combat.(d) The economic context. Though wars are rarely waged for economic reasons, warfare is economic behaviour, interalia, just as it is, and has to be, logistical behaviour also.(e) The technological context. Warfare ever has a technological context, but that context is not always the principal fuel for revolutionary change.(f) The geographical context. Military revolution keyed to the emerging exploitation of a new geographical environment has beckoned both the visionary theorist and the bold military professional.Imperatives for Effective death penalty of RMA3114. authoritative desirable features for implementation of RMA are-(a) Design of a RMA force structure that would effectively use technology.(b) Technological developmentRevolution in Military AffairsRevo lution in Military AffairsCHAPTER IINTRODUCTIONThe Ultimate Determinant in War is the Man on the Scene with the Gun.Rear Admiral J. C. Wylie, USN.1. The notion of military revolutions grew from Soviet writing of the 1970s and 1980s. Early studies talked of a Military Technical Revolution (MTR), which is the impact of a new technology on warfare, but this quickly evolved into the more holistic concept of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), which encompasses the subsequent transformation of operations and organization. Most analysts define a RMA as a discontinuous increase in military capability and effectiveness arising from simultaneous and inversely supportive change in technology, systems, operational methods, and military organizations1. Another definition is, RMA is a major change in the nature of warfare brought about by the innovative application of new technologies which, combined with dramatic changes in military doctrine, operational and organizational concepts, fundamen tally alters the character and conduct of military operations2.2. A revolution in military affairs involves big changes that occur relatively quickly and which tend to spread beyond the profession of arms into the realm of foreign policy. Historical examples include the onset of the telegraph and the rail-road in the last century, the changes surrounding in direct artillery fire, motor vehicles (including tanks), and aircraft in the first half of this century, and the advent of nuclear weapons nearly one half century ago. Now, the information revolution has paved the way for the present revolutionary transformations in warfare3.3. Famous futurists like Alvin Toffler and Heidi Toffler have quoted that, a military revolution, in its fullest scene, occurs only, when an entire society transforms itself, forcing its armed forces to change at every level simultaneously from technology and culture to organization, strategy, tactics, training, doctrine and logistics4.4. However a difficulty arises in understanding the current debate over the RMA because some use the term as referring to the revolutionary technology itself that is driving change, while others use the term as referring to revolutionary adaptations by military organizations that may be necessary to deal with the changes in technology or the geopolitical environment, and still others use the term to refer to the revolutionary impact of geopolitical or technological change on the outcome of military conflicts, with specific reference to the political and economic context of globalisation , regardless of the nature of the particular technology or the reaction of the participants to the technological change5. The difference in terms of reference leads to different suggested alternatives.5. The first perspective focuses primarily upon changes in the nation-state and the role of an organised military in using force. This approach highlights the political, social, and economic factors worldwide, which might req uire a completely different type of military and organisational structure to apply force in the future. Authors such as RANDs Sean J. A. Edwards (advocate of Battle Swarm tactics), Carl H. Builder and Lt. Col. Ralph Peters emphasized the decline of the nation-state, the nature of the emerging international order, and the different types of forces needed in the near future.6. The second perspective most commonly assigned the term RMA highlights the evolution of weapons technology, information technology, military organization, and military doctrine among advanced powers. This System of Systems perspective on RMA has been ardently supported by Admiral William Owens6, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who identified three overlapping areas for force assets. These are intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, command, control, communications and intelligence processing, and precision force to enable Dominant Battlefield Knowledge (DBK). Advanced versions of RMA inc orporate other sophisticated technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), nanotechnology, robotics, and biotechnology. Presently the RMA debate is focussed on network-centric warfare which is a doctrine that aims to connect all troops on the battlefield.7. Finally, the third concept is that a true revolution in military affairs has not yet occurred or is unlikely to. Authors such as Michael OHanlon and Frederick Kagan, point to the fact much of the technology and weapon systems ascribed to the contemporary RMA were in development long before 1991 and the flashy Internet and information technology boom. Several critics point out that a revolution within the military ranks might carry detrimental consequences, produce severe economic strain, and ultimately prove counterproductive. Such authors tend to profess a much more gradual evolution in military affairs, as opposed a rapid revolution.8. Moreover there is also considerable disagreement over the causes7, the conditions that are necessary for them to occur, their consequences for warfare and the international system more broadly and, of course, over whether a particular development does or does not qualify for the label. Where one draws the line for what counts as an RMA will depend on the restrictiveness or permissiveness of ones definition of the concept.9. Whatever the interpretation is, an RMA should fundamentally affect strategy and the role of the military in the international system, leading to a qualitative shift in what war is and how it is conducted. It should be a period of great acceleration of change that has far greater consequences than routine revolution, and which therefore demands specific attention.10. But what is essential is that the ramifications of the RMA need to be understood not only by military officers but also by strategy planners, both military and civil. The military has to contend with information and space warfare, in addition to land, sea and air. The strategy plan ners, on the other hand, have to consider the economic, political, military and information aspects in their policy and decision making.CHAPTER II METHODOLOGY1. A few of the types of RMAs of importance in the yesteryears and presently in vogue today include combined- system RMAs (a collection of military systems put together in new ways to achieve a revolutionary effect), single-system RMA (single technology, nuclear fission/ fusion, drove the revolution) and an integrated-system RMA (various systems, when joined with their accompanying operational and organizational concepts, will become integrated systems).2. RMAs have risen from various sources, with manybut not allof them technological. Societal change has also contributed to a military revolution during the wars of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic era, in which the levee en masse allowed for the creation of larger, national armies.Statement of the Problem3. To study the likely impact of embracing the ongoing information driven RMA on organizational structure, doctrinal precepts, tactical technological developments and the changes necessitated for effective implementation of this RMA. The lessons learnt by the US Army in this regard will serve as a useful guide.Justification4. The description of the revolution in military affairs is neither definitive nor conclusive. The discussion is intended primarily to stimulate thinking in unique and more meaningful ways about how warfare in the twenty-first century may be fundamentally different than it is today and, of equal importance, evaluating what we should be doing now to prepare ourselves for that eventuality.5. A number of changes must occur if any military is going to compete successfully on the battlefields of the future. There must be a change in outlook i.e. change in the way about preparing for the future. The military must nurture an attitude that supports free thinking and accepts honest mistakes, encourages experimentation, rewards risk take rs, and makes provisions for starting over. As an organization, the military must break out of the box, consider alternative futures, think the unthinkable and let go of the conventional modes of operation.Statement of Objectives6. While all concepts proposed by RMA analysts may be relevant, the issue needs deliberation in a more professional manner. That includes even the US by their own admission. The understanding of the various ramifications of RMA by the strategy planners as well as military officers would lead to certain questions (a) What does RMA mean in the Indian context and what are its practical implications?(b) With RMA powered by the recent explosion in IT and keeping in mind our strength in this field how far ahead can we go and achieve the much-touted concepts of RMA?(c) What national posture do we need to adopt how should our national doctrine be formulated on RMA to include the three services, bureaucrats and other agencies responsible for national security?(d) Is reorganisation of the armed forces essential so as to respond and adapt to the organisational challenge posed by the emergence of InformationTechnology? Would it really meet the desired effect of flattening the organisation and shortening the various channels of command?(e) What should the pace of conduct of customised training for the Indian Armed Forces in the field of information warfare and operations be?Scope7. The scope of this dissertation shall be limited to the impact of IT on RMA and changes required in view of the variance in views regarding RMA. The various implications on the Indian Armed Forces especially the army shall be analysed in detail to include various imperatives in the strategic, operational, tactical, administrative, organisational and training realms.Hypothesis8. The present ongoing RMA has been ushered in by Information Technology. However there are varied views of analysists regarding the changes that would be necessitated for effectively embracing this RMA. This coupled with fixed mindsets has led to problems in effectively embracing the current RMA. In analyzing the changes required in the Indian context lessons can be drawn from the processes employed by the US Army, the first force to take steps in this direction.Limitations of the Research9. An in-depth research on the subject would need face-to-face interaction with the various authorities in charge of national security i.e. the Armed Forces, bureaucrats, police, paramilitary and intelligence agencies. Owing to constraints limited information has been gained through seminars and discussions. Compulsions of confidentiality have also limited the depth of research.Methods of Data Collection10. Most of the material has been collected primarily through secondary sources, i.e. various books, periodicals and magazines from the DSSC Library. Tertiary sources like various journals and reviews have also been referred to. Bibliography is attached as appendix. The other major source has been the Internet with the sites accessed listed at the end of bibliography.Organisation of the Dissertation11. This study has been organised into a number of chapters as under-(a) Chapter I Introduction. In Chapter I, the importance of understanding the various connotations of RMA has been brought out.(b) Chapter II Methodology. It covers the Statement of the Problem, Scope and Methodology of carrying out research for the dissertation.(c) Chapter III Current RMA Its Impact. This chapter covers the facets on which the current RMA is premised.(d) Chapter IV An Overview of Enablers Required for Initiating/ Implementing RMA. This chapter covers the imperatives for implementing RMA.(e) Chapter V Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Organisational Structure.(f) Chapter V I- Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Technological, Tactical Doctrinal Aspects.(g) Chapter VII- Impact of RMA, Problems Caused Changes Required in Training Aspects.(h) Chapter VII I- Case Study on Implementation of Current RMA by US.(j) Chapter IX- Relevance to India.(k) Chapter X- Conclusion(l) Bibliography.CHAPTER III CURRENT RMA ITS IMPACT1. The current RMA includes the new tools and processes of waging war like Information Warfare (IW), Network Centric Warfare (NCW), Integrated Command and Control (C4ISR), System of Systems, all powered by IT8. The status of information has been raised from being raw material for intelligence to a level where it is now accepted as a tool, or even a new medium for war fighting. Information superiority has led to attainment of decision superiority. The lethality of information power is like any other power. Op Iraqi Freedom launched on 19 March 2003 was a major success essentially due to receipt of information in a short time frame. Establishing information dominance over ones adversary will become a major focus of the operational art9 in the future.2. The United States has led and maintains a significant advantage in the development of information- based technologies. This advantage is well grounded in U.S. military capabilities10. The roots of the U.S. militarys information-based RMA have been decades in the making. As information-based technologies and capabilities continue to mature, they have become much less expensive, and by their very nature, can be rapidly incorporated by other military forces to enhance their capabilities.3. Information superiority consists of the integration of offensive and defensive information operations. Improved intelligence collection and assessment, as well as modern information processing and command and control capabilities, are at the heart of the current RMA11. With such enhanced capabilities nations will be able to respond rapidly to any conflict. Forces will achieve a state of information superiority, in near real-time, which will be pervasive across the full spectrum of military operations, enabling the force commander to dominate any situation. Velocity of b attles would be speeded up causing a collapse of enemys command and control structures causing a rout essentially due to shortening of own OODA loop12.4. The capabilities of the present RMA have yielded transformation of weapon systems, military organizations and operations through the integration of Information Technologies. When information technologies are integrated into a coherent system that includes modern weapon systems operated by highly trained personnel, they provide force multipliers to military formations13, allowing them to perform more complex manoeuvres, to fire accurately at longer range and to experience a higher degree of situational awareness compared to their opponents. Information warfare can be anything from striking headquarters or communications systems with conventional weapons, hacking computer systems, conducting propaganda and psychological operations, or even to committing atrocities to instill panic in the enemys population.Dynamics of the Current RMA. 5. The current RMA is driven by three primary factors14 i.e. rapid technological advance compelling a shift from the Industrial Age to the Information Age, the end of the Cold War and a decline in defence budgets. The transition is forcing a change in the way the military services are organized, how they are supplied, how they procure weapons and how they are managed, and, most importantly, how they think and fight. The extent to which the U S Armed Forces have accepted these changes, however, has been remarkable, particularly given that the draw downs, relocations, reorganizations and other fundamental alterations to the way they operate began immediately following a victory of immense proportions in the Gulf War a victory which confirmed the tremendous progress made in rebuilding the services, especially the Army, after the Vietnam War. The Army is not only restructuring as it downsizes, it also is changing the very way it thinks about war.6. The development of computers, satellit es, and imagery has been occurring at an astounding rate, and there is no indication that this will slow down in the foreseeable future. The inference is that the future military will expand the ability to collect, evaluate and disseminate information relevant to the battlefield at a rate far greater than now. According to Libicki, future precision strike capabilities will mean that, to be seen on the battlefield is to be killed.7. Gen Shalikashral of the US Army realising the current RMAs importance gave the concept of Joint Force 201015. This concept is basically aimed at giving a frame work for the application of RMA by US forces by 2010 to achieve Full Spectrum Dominance or total dominance. This concept is based on four pillars-(a) Dominant Manoeuvre. It implies an operation from various dispersed points all focusing on one target. Dominating manoeuvre will deploy the right forces at the right time and place to cause the enemys psychological collapse and complete capitulation.(b ) Precision Engagement. This means the engagement of the target with extreme precision by PGMs from land or sea platforms. For this accurate data collection about the target is very important to make the engagement effective.(c) Full Dimensional Protection. This is the ability to protect the forces including plans from any damage. This enhances the scope of what has to be protected.(d) Focussed Logistics. It means reducing the logistic load to only the essential requirement in shortest possible time, at the fastest speed and in the correct quantity. The RMA also enables to calculate precisely what is required, how much is required and where required.8. The current rate of change suggests that state of the art in any technological context will be an extremely short-lived phenomenon16, particularly with respect to the technologies that were key to the success of Desert Storm including space systems, telecommunications systems, computer architectures, global information distribution ne tworks, and navigation systems. Future revolutions will occur much more rapidly, offering far less time for adaptation to new methods of warfare. The growing imperative in the business world for rapid response to changing conditions in order to survive in an intensely competitive environment is surely instructive for military affairs. Corporations repeatedly have to make major changes in strategy to accommodate the full implications of technologies, which have already existed many years.9. Exploiting the Information Age. The armed forces must develop the essential competences in personnel to exploit new technologies and systems to the full and to ensure that leaders have the right skills to deliver and integrate information projects successfully. To help meet these requirements, there is a need to develop information age skills for everyone joining the armed forces. Efforts should also be made to increase opportunities 17 for personnel already serving besides increasing IT awareness training during initial training.10. Many analysts agree on one important fact that the current revolution in military affairs seems to have at least two stages18. In the drive to limit military casualties, stand-off platforms, stealth, precision, information dominance, and missile defence are the first stage. The second may be robotics, nonlethality, pyschotechnology, and elaborate cyber defence. The revolution in military affairs may see the transition from concern with centres of gravity to a less mechanistic and more sophisticated notion of interlinked systems.11. The armed forces no longer have to request scientists to develop a specific technology for possible military use. Quite likely, it will be the scientists who would be chasing military planners prodding them to use technologies that can now be converted to weapons much quicker than before through computer simulation, cutting development and production cycles dramatically19.CHAPTER IVAn Overview of Enablers Required for INITIATING/ Implementing RMA1. An analysis gives rise to the three dimensions of the RMA required for a nation to effectively implement it. First is the conscious decision on the part of a state to acquire all or portions of what might be termed an RMA complex. Second is the ability to acquire or develop the systems that constitute RMA-type technologies. Last, and perhaps most important, is the ability, organizationally and operationally, to adapt technologies in ways that bring into being the full military potential of an RMA.2. Even though the revolution in military affairs has attracted some brilliant thinkers, systematic strategic discourse remains rare. Except for Andrew Krepinevich20 and Jeffrey Cooper, few writers have attempted to place the current RMA in its broader theoretic and historic context. Moreover, the fact of change may be most dramatically manifested in combat, but historically the most profound RMAs are peacetime phenomena. Militaries are driven to innovate dur ing peacetime by the need to make more efficient use of shrinking resources, by reacting to major changes in the security environment21.3. Both the Tofflers, who identify only two historical military revolutions, and Krepinevich, who distinguishes ten since the 14th century, are suggestive of implementing RMA through major and minor revolutions in military affairs as under-(a) Minor Revolutions. Minor revolutions in military affairs tend to be initiated by individual technological or social changes, occur in relatively short periods (less than a decade), and have their greatest direct impact on the battlefield. Minor revolutions in military affairs can be deliberately shaped and controlled. A minor revolution in military affairs driven by military applications of silicon-chip technology is already underway and the next minor revolution will be driven by robotics and psycho technology.(b) Major Revolutions22. Major revolutions in military affairs are the result of combined multiple t echnological, economic, social, cultural and/or military changes, usually occur over relatively long periods (greater that a decade), and have direct impact on strategy. Major revolutions cannot be deliberately shaped and controlled. The world is potentially at the beginning of one.4. Enablers for revolutions in military affairs appear to follow a cyclical pattern with initial stasis followed by initiation, critical mass, consolidation, response, and return to stasis. Revolutions in military affairs can be initiated by one breakthrough power or by a group. In the modern security system, revolutions in military affairs are usually inspired by outright defeat or by a perception of inferiority or decline versus a peer or niche opponent. Revolutions in military affairs have a point of critical mass when changes in concepts, organizations, and technology meld. Once recognized, every revolutionary breakthrough generates responses. Responses to revolutions in military affairs can be symmet ric or asymmetric asymmetric responses may be more difficult to counter.5. The greatest advantage for the breakthrough power lies in the period immediately following critical mass thus, there may be a temptation to initiate conflict before responses can be effective. All revolutions in military affairs have a culminating point 23, at which innovation and change slow or stop, determined by the interaction between the revolutionary breakthrough and the responses, followed by a consolidation phase This may occur when leaders become satisfied with the military balance and will no longer risk radical change. It may also occur when costs of change are thought to outweigh the benefits of further expenditure. During the consolidation phase, superior training and leadership may be the only ways to achieve superior relative combat effectiveness against symmetric responses.6. At times, a single state can initiate revolution by recognizing how to effectively combine various evolutionary develop ments, new ideas, and technology. Napoleonic France and the Mongols of Genghis Khan were examples of single state breakthroughs. At other times, there can be a collectivebreakthrough as when the European powers of the mid-19th to early 20th centuries combined industrialization, railroads, improved metallurgy and explosives, the telegraph, barbed wire, concrete, improved methods of government funding, nationalism, breech loading, rifled artillery and small arms, steam-driven, armoured ships, internal combustion engines, radio, increased literacy and public health, improved explosives, and the machine gun.7. Always, though, the essence of the revolution is not the invention of new technology, but discovery of innovative ways to organize, operate, and employ new technology. Revolutions in military affairs begin when the potential latent in technological, conceptual, political, economic, social, and organizational changes that have occurred or are occurring is recognized and converted t o augment combat effectiveness. In pre-modern, heterogeneous security systems, revolution was often initiated by states outside the system or on its periphery. Sometimes their advantage accrued from superior morale, training, organization, leadership, strategy, or tactics.8. In the modern, communications-intensive security system, revolutions in military affairs have most frequently been initiated by a state within the system24.This is because fundamental change of any kind is difficult, even frightening those who unleash revolution never know exactly where it will take them. Uncertainty as to the eventual outcome means that political and military leaders satisfied with their states security situation will seldom run the risks of revolution. Usually, then, only real or imagined danger can provide the spark.9. Initiation of a revolution requires revolutionaries. RMAs are led by armed forces that tolerate and, at the appropriate time, empower visionaries. The decision to do this is a vital juncture in military revolutions. In the past, only a peer competitor could offer enough of a threat to empower military visionaries and dispel the miasma of inertia and petrified thinking. This may be changing. The military role in implementing innovative ideas is crucial. As one observer noted, many important wartime technical innovations such as the tank, proximity fuse, and microwave radar, and organizational innovations such as new doctrines for submarine warfare and strategic targeting functions for American bombers, were pursued at the initiative of military officers or with their vigorous support. What may be key to winning the innovation battle is a professional military climate, which fosters thinking in unconstrained fashion about future war. The other critical requirement is the ability and willingness of relatively junior officers who are now out in the field and fleet to think about the future. They are likely to be in closer touch with new and emerging technolog ies, which have potential military application. As operators, they are aware of the operational and organizational problems that they must deal with daily and hence are prime clients for possible solutions25. Further, an offensive concept is vital for the implementation of RMA.10. The most successful revolutionary states turn military advantage into economic and political dominance, but the transition is difficult. Being the first to understand or implement a RMA does not guarantee even military victory. A breakthrough state or coalition which clearly understands the RMA but which fails to develop an appropriate, balanced, strategy can-and usually will-lose to a state or coalition, which lags in understanding but possesses superior strategic prowess26. History is littered with breakthrough military states which ultimately failed, whether those of Genghis Khan, Napoleon Bonaparte, or Imperial and Nazi Germany.11. The course of the current RMA is not preordained. Key policy decisions made now will both affect the pace of revolution and the shape of the 21st century force that emerges from it. Perhaps the most fundamental choice of allconcerns the enthusiasm with which developed nations should pursue the current minor RMA and the extent to which it should shape force development. Often this is not even considered due to the traditional approach to technology.Technology is respected, almost deified. There are sound historical reasons for this. During its formative period, many nations suffered from chronic shortages of skilled labour, thus forcing reliance on labour-saving technology. Eli Whitney, Robert Fulton, Thomas Edison, Henry Ford and thousands of other entrepreneurs and inventors harnessed technology in the name of efficiency. Reflecting this legacy, many nations have often evinced an unreflective trust in the ultimate benefit of technology. However, a reasonable case can be made that too vigorous pursuit of the current minor RMA is undesirable or dangerou s, that the costs and risks outweigh the expected benefits. Budget constraints and the changing nature of global presence provide the broad context within which redesign of any military will unfold. However, it is to the technological factor, in the present era that basic judgments about force structure changes are attributed to27.12. The utility of the current RMA28, with its stress on precision, standoff strikes, falls off dramatically toward the poles of the military/technology spectrum. Opponents at the low end of the spectrum tend to operate in widely dispersed fashion and emit a limited electronic signature, thus complicating targeting. Their organization is often cellular, making decapitation difficult. If they are insurgents, they intermingle with the population. It is also important for successful implementation of RMA, the organizational enabler i.e. all important commanders, must be ingrained in military doctrine and practice failing which the RMA is not guaranteed to tak e hold throughout todays defense organizations. Second, unless the rational basis for the strategy is translated into an overarching vision, the RMA faces obstacles in the form of powerful, change-resistant bureaucratic forces29.13. Enablers for RMA 30 need to be constantly viewed under the effect of the following-(a) The political context. This is the breeding ground of war, and hence warfare.(b) The strategic context. The strategic context expresses the relationship between political demand and military supply, keyed to the particular tasks specific to a conflict.(c) The social-cultural context. Social-cultural trends are likely to prove more revealing at an early stage of the prospects for revolutionary change in warfare than missile tests, defense contracts, military maneuvers, or even, possibly, and some limited demonstration of a novel prowess in combat.(d) The economic context. Though wars are rarely waged for economic reasons, warfare is economic behaviour, interalia, just a s it is, and has to be, logistical behaviour also.(e) The technological context. Warfare always has a technological context, but that context is not always the principal fuel for revolutionary change.(f) The geographical context. Military revolution keyed to the emerging exploitation of a new geographical environment has beckoned both the visionary theorist and the bold military professional.Imperatives for Effective Implementation of RMA3114. Certain desirable features for implementation of RMA are-(a) Design of a RMA force structure that would effectively use technology.(b) Technological development